While I keep my own handicapping records, I go to various internet sites to check out other postings on odds. Odds Shark provides a lot of free stats.
Most of the odds information in the Chiefs vs. New York Jets portion of this blog came from Odds Shark.
Here’s one of the top stats provided: The Chiefs are 11-0 straight up in their last 11 games as favorites. And they are favored by three in the game this Sunday at Arrowhead.
After the way they played last Sunday at Houston, it’s a wonder anyone would have them favored against the Jets. But there they are. The Chiefs were bad, bad, bad in that 19-12 loss.
So do they really have a shot at covering against the Jets? Odds Shark picks the Chiefs to win 26-16.
This is their first matchup since the Chiefs won by two touchdowns two seasons ago at Arrowhead. The Jets are 5-0-2 against the spread in their last seven as an underdog. The Chiefs are 5-1 against the spread in their last six against the Jets, only the last of which was quarterbacked by Alex Smith.
All of Kansas City’s 11 wins in 2015 were by four points or more and all of the Jets’ 2015 losses were by five points or more.
In the two games so far this season, the Jets are 1-1 straight up and 2-0 against the spread; KC is 1-1 and 0-2.
Offensively, the game matches the Chiefs No. 16-ranked offense (22.5 PPG) against a Jets defense that ranks No. 26 at 27 PPG. The Chiefs passing attack has averaged 251 yards per game, less than the Jets have given up through the air (315.5 YPG on average).
In comparing defenses, the New York Jets own the league’s No. 12-rated front seven in terms of stopping the run, allowing 86 yards a game on the road. Kansas City, on the other hand, rates No. 19 in rushing yards at home.
Matt Forte rushed for three TDs in the Jets 37-31 home victory over Buffalo last Thursday. NFL analysts believe the extra three days between games will help the Jets.
Some more Odds Shark betting stats:
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Jets 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
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Jets 2-3-2 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
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Jets 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Kansas City
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Chiefs 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
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Chiefs 12-2 SU in its last 14 games
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Chiefs 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
So, with this plethora of information, what do you think? Well, none of those stats tells me how the Chiefs will react to the poor play last Sunday. Also, they were oh so bad in five straight losses after an opening victory last season. Will they overcome that memory of defeat?
Well, I don’t think so and will go with the Jets and the points for $11.
Two of the biggest game on the NFL schedule this week are Denver at Cincy and Pittsburgh at Philadelphia. I won’t play Cincy’s giving the Broncos 3 points — just too iffy. However, I really like the Steelers at Philadelphia giving 3½ for $33.
There’s a caveat here. Odds Shark handicapping models based on recent betting stats and prediction formulas show the Eagles winning 22-16. Yikes. Well, both are 2-0. But the Steelers have Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback and the Eagles are going with a precocious rookie, Carson Wentz. I still like the Steelers.
Other NFL bets:
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$33 — Dallas -7 vs. Chicago
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$22 — Arizona -4½ at Buffalo, Miami -9½ vs. Cleveland
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$11 — Detroit +7½ at Green Bay, Minnesota +7 at Carolina, San Francisco +9½ at Seattle
Now for the colleges.
The Kansas State home game vs. Missouri State on Saturday is off the board. Kansas will play again a week from today at Texas Tech.
The Wildcats, now 1-1, demolished Florida Atlanta 63-7 last Saturday. But they provided something for Coach Bill Snyder to stew about: 13 penalties for 131 yards. However, most everything was in good working order.
This will be the last game for the coaches to tinker with game plans before starting Big 12 action the following week at West Virginia. They have plenty of unanswered questions to ponder, mainly on offense. The backfield remains by-committee, with Charles Jones, Justin Silmon, Dalvin Warmack, Alex Barnes and Winston Dimel. Quarterback seems set with Jesse Ertz as the starter. Ertz’s passing ability, especially long range, remains questionable.
K-State’s underrated front seven, anchored by linebacker Elijah Lee, end Jordan Willis and tackle Will Geary, has performed well in the early going. For that matter, the total package has looked solid.
Missouri State, off to a 2-0 start, was picked in the preseason to finish last in the Missouri Valley Conference. The Bears’ clean start has a lot to do with the level of the competition, Southwestern College and Murray State. The Bears will need a big day from the defense, namely leading tackler Dylan Cole. Dave Steckel, a longtime Mizzou assistant mainly on the defensive side of the ball, is in his second season as the Bears head coach.
There’s already a big-time game slated in the Big 12 — Oklahoma State at Baylor.
Baylor remains the only undefeated team in the Conference. But the Bears have played arguably the weakest nonconference schedule in the Big 12, romping 55-7 over Northwestern State, 40-13 over SMU and 38-10 over Rice.
Oklahoma State went 2-1 in nonconference play but would be 3-0 if not for a botched call by the officials that allowed Central Michigan an extra play two weeks ago in Stillwater. The Chippewas were inadvertently awarded an extra play after the Cowboys committed intentional grounding on what would have been the game’s last play. Central Michigan then pulled out a 30-27 victory when quarterback Cooper Rush threw a Hail Mary pass to Jesse Kroll who then lateraled to Corey Willis for the touchdown.
Oklahoma State bounced back for a 45-38 win over Pittsburgh last weekend as junior quarterback Mason Rudolph completed 26 of 46 passes and set an Oklahoma State record with 540 yards, averaging 20.8 yards per completion.
The Bears, who led the nation in both scoring offense and total offense for the last three years, have sputtered at times so far this season, although they’re averaging 557.3 yards in total offense. But that ranks just fourth in the pass-happy Big 12 and eighth nationally.
Oklahoma State leads the all-time series, 19-15. The Bears won 45-35 last year in Stillwater.
They are 8½-point favorites Saturday and I like the dog for $22.
Other college bets:
· $33 — Memphis -16½ vs. Bowling Green
· $22 — Wyoming -3 at E. Michigan, C. Michigan -3½ at Virginia, Michigan -18.5 vs. Penn State, Michigan State -5½ vs. Wisconsin, Cincy -18½ vs. Miami O, Nebraska -7½ at Northwestern, UNLV -14½ vs. Idaho
· $11 — Mississippi State -22 at UMass, West Virginia -7 vs. BYU, S. Mississippi -10 at UTEP, Notre Dame -21 vs. Duke, Arkansas +6 at Texas A&M, Mississippi -7 vs. Georgia, Stanford -3 at UCLA