The Chiefs, coming off a bye week after the humiliating 43-14 loss at Pittsburgh, are back on the road again, this time for a late Sunday afternoon game at Oakland.
This series used to be full of anticipation, verbal jousts and physical intimidation. It’s still a big AFC West Division game, however.
The Raiders four victories have by a total of 12 points — two of them by one point. And that’s the spread for this game.
The Raiders are 0-6 against the spread in their last 6 games at home. The Chiefs are 6-0 straight up in their last 6 games against their division. They are 10-3 SU and ATS in their last 13 games on the road against the Raiders. After a bye week, KC has gone 4-6 straight up and 5-5 against the spread in their last 10 games.
The handicappers are making too much of the Chiefs having a healthy Jamaal Charles ready to play at full strength for the first time this season. The Chiefs have too many other problems to solve before they can be confident. Like a porous defense, like an ineffective quarterback Alex Smith, like inept play-calling.
Prediction models run by the computers at Odds Shark pick a 26-21 Raiders victory.
PR HF HD RF RD Cover Streak APF APA Record
KC 15.0 1-1-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-2-0 1-3-0 nc1 20.8 23.0 2-2
Oakland 16.0 1-1-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 3-0-0 4-1-0 c3 28.4 17.5 4-1
I can’t see the Chiefs breaking out of their early season downer. I’ll go with the Raiders for $11.
There’s a game in the NFL that I will check on just to see how Arthur Brown is doing with Jacksonville. Yeah, that Arthur Brown, the outstanding Kansas State linebacker who went to Baltimore in the second round of the 2013 NFL draft. He never seemed to fit in the Ravens 3-4 defense and became a free agent after last season. Jacksonville picked him up on waivers and signed him to a $890,000 contract. He may fare better in the Jaguars 4-3 defense.
The Jaguars are a 2½-point underdog this week at Chicago.
PR HF HD RF RD Cover Streak APF APA Record
Jax 6.5 0-1-0 2-0-0 0-0-0 0-1-0 2-2-0 c1 21.0 27.8 1-3
Chicago 12.5 0-1-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0-3-0 1-4-0 nc1 17..0 25.2 1-4
The Jaguars are coming off a bye week and maybe they did something to shore up their defense — they’re giving up 27.8 points a game. Maybe Brown can have something to say about that. Chicago’s offense ain’t all that hot so I’ll take a chance with the 2½ points for $11.
I’m making a little more play on the Indy at Houston game. Yep, defensive end J.J. Watt, the hunk of Houston’s defense, is out for the season after undergoing back surgery. Well, if the Texans can get their offense going, they can overcome his loss at least against the Colts. Maybe they can have a shootout. Colt quarterback Andrew Luck is pushing the Colts to more than 27 points a game.
The power rating favors the Texans and they have covered all three games as home favorites this season. I just like this game and will lay the points and bet $22 on the Texans.
PR HF HD RF RD Cover Streak APF APA Record
Indy 13.0 2-1-0 0-0-0 0-1-0 0-1-0 2-3-0 c1 27.4 29.6 2-3
Houston 17.5 3-0-0 0-0-0 0-1-0 0-1-0 3-2-0 nc1 16.4 20.8 3-2
$11 NFL bets — NY Giants -3 vs. Baltimore, Pittsburgh -7½ at Miami, Tennessee -7 vs. Cleveland, Washington +2½ vs. Philadelphia, Arizona -7½ vs. New York Jets
It’s a parochial outlook but it sure seems that the officials have screwed the Wildcats even more this season. The missed holding call against West Virginia can be considered a game changer. The tackle in the end zone by a Stanford defender on a Wildcat receiver went uncalled and possibly could have given K-State a shot. Then in the 44-38 victory last Saturday in Manhattan, the officials blew two calls, ruling pass interference on the Wildcats. Both set up Red Raider touchdowns.
On the call against D.J. Reed late in the game, the usually stoic Coach Bill Snyder became animated as he stormed down the sideline. Enough is enough.
The Cats will need all the help they can get Saturday at Oklahoma. The Sooners have lost a couple of games that put them out of playoff contention. They lost to Houston 33-23 and Ohio State 45-24. But they have come back to beat TCU 52-46 and Texas 45-40.
Obviously, the Sooners defense is vulnerable surrendering at least 40 points in each of their last three games, but the offense is moving right along. Quarterback Baker Mayfield is heating up, aided by the emergence of receiver Dede Westbrook, who has caught 17 passes for 390 yards and five TDs the past two weeks. And then there’s Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine, who trampled the Horns for his fifth career game of at least 200 yards rushing. Perine can give the Cats a lot of trouble with his size and speed.
An internet touting service said K-State lacks the consistent quarterback, Jesse Ertz, and general offensive execution to stay with the Sooners. The service picked the game, Oklahoma 36, Kansas State 24. The Cats are getting 10½ and I don’t think that’s enough. OU for $11.
How can Kansas lose to Ohio 37-21, Memphis 43-7 and Texas Tech 55-19 and then play TCU in a tight one before falling 24-23? Well, Memphis and Tech were on the road. Nah, there’s something else. Maybe it’s just that the Horned Frogs have a difficult time playing in Lawrence.
Well, the next game is on the road. And it’s against undefeated Baylor with all its offensive explosiveness.
There are a couple of things that seem contradictory about this game. You think of Baylor and its passing, but the Bears are No. 5 in the country on the ground. You think of Baylor as just offense but their blitz packages are devastating and KU quarterback Ryan Willis may have a world of trouble.
Most touts predict a rout and the 34½-point spread reflects the thinking. I kinda like the points and will go with $11 on KU.
College bets:
$33 — Nebraska -3 at Indiana
$22 — Stanford +3 at Notre Dame, Wisconsin +10 vs. Ohio State
$11 — Navy -3 at East Carolina, Illinois -6 at Rutgers, Texas -13½ vs. Iowa State, Florida -13½ vs. Missouri, Texas Tech +1 vs. West Virginia, Alabama -13 at Tennessee