The last time Kansas City and Indianapolis met in an NFL game, the Colts overcame a 28-point deficit in the second half to win 45-44. That was an AFC Wild Card game in 2014.
Could it get that wild when they meet Sunday in Indy? Sure could. The Colts are lacking on defense but with Andrew Luck at quarterback, they can put up the points.
The Chiefs are 2½-point favorites. OddsShark, an internet handicapping source, picks the Colts to win outright. Look at the past results: The Colts are 13-2 straight up and 12-3 against the spread in their last 15 games against the Chiefs, including a current streak of 3-0 SU and ATS.
Through the first seven games of the season, Luck is playing some of the best football of his career. His passer rating of 98.3 would be a career best for a single season if he is able to maintain it, and his 2,074 passing yards, 14 passing touchdowns and four interceptions put him on pace for a season of 4,741 yards and 32 touchdown passes with only nine interceptions.
Kansas City has been reliable as a betting favorite over the last two seasons, with a 14-0 SU and 9-5 ATS record in its last 14 games laying points. Since the start of the 2015 season, the Chiefs have been favored on the road six times and are a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS in those games.
The game also pits Indianapolis’ No. 4-ranked offense, averaging 27.7 PPG, against a Chiefs defense that ranks No. 11 at 20.5 PPG. The Colts are averaging 273.6 through the air, more than the Chiefs secondary allows, 257 YPG per game.
Defensively, the Chiefs feature the league’s No. 12-rated road run defense, allowing 103.7 yards per game. The Colts, meanwhile, rank No. 22 in rushing offense at home.
Luck ranks in the top 5 or top 10 of most passing categories despite being the most sacked quarterback in the NFL this year (25). Luck’s success is often overshadowed by the team’s defensive deficiencies. The Colts’ defense is one of the worst in the league, both statistically and visually. It has surrendered a fourth quarter lead in five of the seven games this season.
I think the Chiefs will cover. I’ll go with $11.
PR HF HD RF RD Cover Streak APF APA Record
Kansas City 15.5 1-2-0 0-0-0 0-0-0 1-2-0 2-4-0 c2 22.7 20.5 4-2
Indy 16.5 2-1-0 0-0-0 0-1-0 1-1-1 3-3-1 c1 27.7 28.6 3-4
A game that provides intriguing aspects pits Arizona at Carolina. The two teams played in Super Bowl 50 with the Panthers winning 49-15.
The Cardinals are 3-3-1 after a stunning 6-6 overtime tie against the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday Night Football.
David Johnson has rushed for 681 yards and caught 28 passes for 323 yards through seven games, The Cardinal defense is No. 2 in the league.
Carolina is a major disappointment with a 1-5 record. Poor play, injuries and a general malaise have affected the Panthers. They are coming off a bye week and are hoping the players have had time to mend physically and mentally.
The Panthers’ offensive line hasn’t been able to protect quarterback Cam Newton. After getting drilled by Falcons linebacker Deion Jones, Newton has spent two weeks in the concussion protocol.
The Panther defense is giving up almost 30 points a game.
Despite knowing that the Cards played poorly on offense Sunday night and had a short time to prepare after a long game, I’ll take Arizona with the 3 points for $11.
PR HF HD RF RD Cover Streak APF APA Record
Arizona 19.0 2-3-0 0-0-0 1-1-0 0-0-0 3-4-0 nc1 22.7 15.7 3-3-1
Carolina 19.5 1-2-0 0-0-0 0-3-0 0-0-0 1-5-0 nc4 26.8 29.3 1-5
Other NFL bets:
$33 — Minnesota -6 at Chicago
$22 — Detroit +2½ at Houston
$11 — New England -6½ at Buffalo, Denver -5 vs. San Diego, Dallas -4½ vs. Philadelphia
The Big 12 has gone crazy on offense, so wild and frenzied that the defense just can’t keep up. In the four games last Saturday, the winners averaged 41 points.
Take a look at the Oklahoma-at-Texas-Tech game. The Sooners scored 66 points and didn’t cover the 14-point spread. Think about that. Score 66 points and not cover. Unreal. The Red Raiders rang up 59. All those fine Sooner athletes and they can’t stop the Tech offense. At all. Geez. We are brothers, Bob Stoops may be saying about Mike, his defensive coordinator, but this stuff has to stop.
Well, the opportunity comes this Saturday when they host 1-6 Kansas. And they’re giving 40 points. Zowie. Whew, that sounds like too much.
But all you have to do is look what the Jayhawks have done on the road and you can understand why. They lost to Memphis 43-7, to Texas Tech 55-19 and Baylor 49-7. Heck, it’s not every day you get a chance to lay 40 points so for the heck of it I will — OU for just $11.
Two of the lowest scoring teams in the Big 12 will meet Saturday in Ames, Iowa. Kansas State is eighth in the conference, averaging 30.3 points a game while Iowa State is ninth at 23.7. Interestingly, the two teams combined for 73 points a season ago.
K-State has beaten the Cyclones nine straight times in a rivalry that has seen the two meet every year since 1917. This season, the Cats are 4-3 and Iowa State 1-6.
The Cats are above .500 because of their defense, which is giving up just 21 points a game — and a league-low three yards per carry. The Cyclones have allowed 27 sacks and the Wildcats can provide pressure with the likes of linemen Jordan Willis and Will Geary and linebackers Elijah Lee, Will Davis and Charmeachealle Moore.
A key to the game may rest with how well the defense can keep running back Mike Warren in check. He can run; he’s averaging 71 yards a game.
The Cats can run, too, but every time they go against a team that has a no-defense reputation, they falter. Iowa State is last in the league in run defense, giving up 232 yards a game.
Will K-State quarterback Jesse Ertz be ready? He’s playing with an injured shoulder and the wobbly passes certainly can’t be scaring anyone. Maybe he gets stoked for the game since he played high school ball in Iowa. Eh!
The Cyclones are rested after a bye, they’re at home and they’re confident about competing with Big 12 opponents. I agree. So, I’ll take the 6½ points for $11.
Two big games in the conference: Baylor at Texas and West Virginia at Oklahoma State. Baylor and West Virginia are each 6-0.
Oh can Charlie Strong weather the heat as the Texas coach? The Longhorns are 3-4 overall and 1-3 in the conference. Billy Bob Jack is burning. There’s a good chance the Bears will explode with points against a Longhorn defense that seems so disoriented. They’re on the road, but, hey, Waco is just a few miles up the interstate from Austin. The Bears are giving 3 points and that means I am on the favorite for $33.
I still think West Virginia is a suspect team. Look, if the official had thrown the flag for holding on a late West Virginia touchdown, Kansas State just might have won that game. Instead, at home, the Mountaineers won just 17-16. Look, 5-2 Oklahoma State is getting 3½ points in Stillwater and that sounds good to me. I’ll take the Cowboys for $33.
In the other Big 12 game, TCU is an 8½-point favorite at home to Texas Tech. Coach Gary Patterson’s Horned Frogs are just 4-3 and I wonder whether they can stop the Red Raiders offense. I’m skeptical of my rational but I will go with the visitors for $11.
Other college games:
$22 — Washington State -13 at Oregon State, Michigan -23½ at Michigan State, Kentucky +4½ at Missouri
$11 — Virginia Tech -4 at Pittsburgh, Minnesota -5 at Illinois, Virginia +31½ vs. Louisville, Tulsa +11 at Memphis, Nebraska +9 at Wisconsin, Washington -10 at Utah
I am up $23 in the pros and down $118 in the colleges.