The handicappers are doing everything they can to put the rabbit back in the hat for the Chiefs — they’re 3½-point underdogs Sunday at Atlanta. Magic? They certainly had it last Sunday in the somehow, someway 30-27 overtime victory at Denver.
After getting a Rocky Mountain high, they will try to overcome an Atlantic coast low.
Falcon quarterback Matt Ryan is considered an MVP candidate; he ranks third in the NFL with 411.5 total yards a game. The Falcons are scoring 32.5 points a game, best in the league. On the other hand, the dink and dump passing of the Chiefs resembles a team without a quarterback. Whoops! Well, is Alex Smith able to get the ball downfield and develop some powerful offense?
He brought the Chiefs back when needed late against Denver. Hey, enough dissing the Chiefs receivers. Jeremy Maclin is out, yes, but Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce certainly can go long if needed. Every once in a while, Smith needs to test a secondary’s deep defense.
The Chiefs are averaging 328.3 yards per game – 27th in the NFL – while throwing for just 231.7.
The spread probably would have been more if not for the defenses — the Chiefs are good, the Falcons bad. The Flacons don’t have a respectable defense; they barely have any defense, giving up 381 yards a game.
Some of the betting figures look good for the Chiefs — 7-1 straight up and against the spread in their last eight games on the road. However, favorites have gone 6-1 SU and ATS in the last seven meetings between the two teams. Here’s a real negative for the Chiefs: They are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after an ATS win.
Odds Shark computer prediction formulas run early in the week pointed to a 33-19 win for the Falcons. I disagree. I think a little magic remains and that the Chiefs will at least cover with the hook. I’ll place $11 on them.
PR HF HD RF RD Cover Streak APF APA Record
Kansas City 16.0 1-4-0 0-0-0 1-0-0 3-2-0 6-4-1 c1 22.9 19.5 8-3
Atlanta 19.5 1-3-0 1-0-0 1-0-0 4-1-0 7-4-0 c1 32.5 27.5 7-4
Kansas State will meet TCU Saturday in Fort Worth with the game a lot about putting an exclamation point on the season and maybe moving up in the bowl pecking order. Both teams have performed well of late, K-State winning four of its last five and TCU two of its last three.
The Frogs routed Baylor and Texas on the road. At home, they are 2-4, losing their last three.
K-State’s defense needs to continue its strong play, especially against the run where opponents have averaged just 3.6 yards a carry. Jordan Willis and Will Geary are strong up front whole linebacker Elijah Lee and strong safety Dante Barnett are good tacklers. However, too many times receivers have free in the Cat secondary.
Ah but the offense. The Cats have become a quarterback-run team with occasional bursts from a freshman redshirt running back, Alex Barnes. The passing is, well, it stinks. But they find a way to score — they haven’t been below 31 points in the last four games.
Sophomore tackle Dalton Risner has blocked well. The offensive line, however, will face a tough challenge against a Frog front that gets off the snap quickly and pursues relentlessly.
The 6-5 Horned Frogs have been inconsistent. After bottoming out with a 52-46 loss to Oklahoma on Oct. 1, the defense has played pretty well.
K-State is a 4-point dog and I like the Cats getting points. I will go with them for $22.
The big game in the Big 12, of course, is Oklahoma State at Oklahoma. It’s for the title.
OU has all the tools to score but the defense has been shaky, at best. Oklahoma State has balance and should give the Sooners a tussle.
This is the second straight year this rivalry game will decide the conference champ. On Sept. 24, Oklahoma was 1-2, reeling from a Week 3 loss to Ohio State. Oklahoma State had suffered two losses as well, a controversial one to Central Michigan and an 11-point one at then healthy Baylor. However, neither team lost in October or November, riding prolific offenses to offset suspect defenses.
The Big 12 has agreed to add a conference championship game to the schedule beginning in 2017. That is then; this is now.
Oklahoma State is getting 11 points and this sure looks like a pretty good bet. Yeah, those defensive stats are something. Each team is giving a little more than 440 yards a game. Oklahoma State ranks third in the conference on scoring defense, 27.2, while OU is fifth at 30.5. So, a shoot-out? You would think so. And I think the Cowboys have enough weapons to stay under the 11-point spread. I’ll go with $22.
In the other Big 12 game Saturday, I will go with West Virginia -17 at home to Baylor for $11.
This is championship week in college football. Here are my picks for the other power conferences: ACC at Orlando, Virginia Tech +10 vs. Clemson $11; Big 10 at Indianapolis, Penn State +2 vs. Wisconsin $11; Pac-12 at Santa Clara, Washington -7½ vs. Colorado $22; SEC at Atlanta, Florida +24 vs. Alabama $11.
Now back to the NFL.
Have you taken notice of how the New York Giants are in a good position to make it to the Super Bowl? Yep, they’re 8-3. Well, they will take on the Pittsburgh Steelers Sunday to see if they can make it all happen.
What’s the deal? The Steelers, struggling to a 6-5 record and facing long odds to make the playoffs, are 6-point favorites. The rationale: They are at home and their fans are supportive in a big way.
The reason for the dour Giant forecast? Probably the schedule. Five of their last six wins have come against losing teams — and they have been close games. For example, their 27-13 victory last week against Cleveland represented the first win by more than six points — and they needed a late pick-six to put the game away. But they can rely on standout quarterback Eli Manning to still pull off a solid performance.
The Steelers stumbled when quarterback Ben Roethlisberger suffered a knee injury in the middle of the season, but they have started to put it back together in winning two straight games by at least two scores.
I still like the dog and will go with the Giants for $11.
PR HF HD RF RD Cover Streak APF APA Record
NY Giants 14.0 2-4-0 0-0-0 2-0-1 1-1-0 5-5-1 c1 21.0 19.4 8-3
Pittsburgh 21.0 3-1-0 0-1-0 3-2-0 0-1-0 6-5-0 c2 24.2 20.2 6-5
Other NFL picks:
$22 — Green Bay -6½ vs. Houston, San Diego -3½ vs. Tampa Bay
$11 — Dallas -3 at Minnesota, Jacksonville +5 vs. Denver, New Orleans -5½ vs. Detroit, New England -13½ vs. Los Angeles, Washington +2½ at Arizona, Carolina +6½ at Seattle, NY Jets +1½ vs. Indy.