The Chiefs may not want to talk about their conservative play of late but they sure as heck better do something about it. Denver and Santa Claus are coming to town Christmas Day and the Broncos, despite their ineffective offense, have lots of defensive goodies to throw at the Chiefs.
Two of the Chiefs offensive weapons, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, rarely touched the ball in the 19-17 loss to Tennessee last Sunday at Arrowhead. Cynical or not, the Chiefs lost a helluva opportunity to gain a bye through the NFL playoffs. Instead, they’re now the No. 5 seed and facing a disgruntled Bronco team no doubt ready to take on this rivalry with a vengeance.
It has been an ugly stretch of games for the Broncos as they’ve lost three of their last four games, both straight-up and against the spread. As a result, a loss to the Chiefs would dramatically decrease their odds of making the playoffs.
The Chiefs dreadful loss to the Titans is framed in their blowing a 14-point lead.
But an optimist would point out that they’ve been an excellent rebounding team, not losing back-to-back games in more than a year.
Odds Shark computer prediction handicapping models run on this game picked a 28-16 victory for the Chiefs.
Offensively, the game matches up the Chiefs No. 15-ranked offense (22.79 PPG) against a Broncos defense that ranks No. 4 at 18.43 PPG. The Chiefs passing attack has averaged 230.86 yards per game, more than the Broncos give up through the air (183 YPG on average).
Defensively, the Broncos feature the league’s No. 24-rated road run defense, allowing 122.4 yards per game. The Chiefs, meanwhile, rank No. 29 in rushing offense at home.
The last meeting with Denver was part of a magical run by the Chiefs. They were in mile high Denver and sighed breathlessly when Cairo Santos booted a field goal from 34 yards out. The football hit the left upright and bounced through as the overtime period expired to give the Chiefs a 30-27 victory.
“The only way this game could end,” NBC color analyst Cris Collinsworth said.
The kick followed a risky move by Broncos Coach Gary Kubiak that backfired. He sent his kicker, Brandon McManus, out for a 62-yard try with 1:01 left. But he came up way short and wide left on what would have been the longest game-winning field goal in NFL history.
Instead of having to go 80 yards or more after a punt, the Chiefs got the ball at the Denver 48 with one timeout and just more than a minute remaining. The Chiefs reached the Denver 16 before Santos ended it.
Hill scored three touchdowns — on a reception, a rush and a return, something no one had done since Gale Sayers in 1965. Alex Smith threw a 3-yard touchdown pass to Hill and a 2-point conversion pass to tight end Demetrius Harris with 12 seconds left to tie it at 24.
I don’t like the way the Chiefs are playing. So, while I think they will win, I don’t think they can lay the 4 points and cover on this big-time Sunday Night Football game. I’ll go with $11.
PR HF HD RF RD Cover Streak APF APA Record
Denver 15.5 3-2-0 1-1-0 2-1-0 2-2-0 8-6-0 nc2 21.4 18.4 8-6
Kansas City 19.5 2-5-0 0-0-0 1-0-0 4-2-0 7-7-0 nc1 22.8 19.6 10-4
Kansas State is making its second appearance in the Texas Bowl and first since 2006. The Wildcats played in the inaugural Texas Bowl 10 years ago under then-coach Ron Prince and brought a strong crowd with them for a game against Rutgers. But Rutgers won 37-10 in front of 52,000. It remains the worst bowl loss in K-State history.
Coach Bill Snyder, who was retired at the time, attended that game with his family as a fan. He said he didn’t remember anything significant from the trip. Oh, he’s the master of the understatement.
But he does recall the sour memory of Kansas State’s most disappointing loss in the Big 12 Championship game. In 1998, K-State was No. 1 in the country and 11-0 with talent to win a national championship. Then calamity. The Aggies rallied and won the championship game in St. Louis 36-33 in double overtime. Now, the Cats must fight off the memories of that defeat and take on a team that abandoned the Big 12 for the SEC.
Aggie Coach Kevin Sumlin is looking forward to the face-off with Snyder: “You’re coaching against a legend. For me, it’s an honor as a coach to be on the same field.”
A&M leads the series 8-7.
The Aggies have dropped four of six since being ranked No. 4 in College Football Playoff rankings. They will hope to turn things around in front of a friendly Houston crowd.
Trevor Knight, a former Oklahoma quarterback, is a key. The Aggies lost every game this season in which Knight completed fewer than 50 percent of his passes but was 7-0 when he completed 50 percent or more of his attempts. Kansas State held opposing quarterbacks under a 50 percent completion rate just once all season – excluding a game against Missouri State that was called at halftime.
The Cats have gone 8-4 and 5-7 ATS so far this season, while the Aggies are at 8-4 and 4-8 ATS.
The game also pits Kansas State’s No. 48-ranked offense, averaging 31.92 PPG, against a Texas A&M defense that ranks No. 37 at 23.83 PPG. K-State passing is averaging just 151.83 yards a game; the Aggies give up 254.58 yards a game.
In comparing defenses, the Aggies own the No. 113-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 262.25 yards a game when on the road. K-State relies heavily on the run.
The Odds Shark computer model has the Cats, a 2½-point underdog, winning 35-29.
Hmm, I like the Cats getting points so I’ll wager $11.
I’m spotlighting three other games in the NFL.
Chiefs fans will spend a lot of time no doubt checking the score Saturday when Indianapolis heads to Oakland. The Raiders have already clinched a playoff spot but the Chiefs would move into first place if they win and Oakland loses — because KC has beaten Oakland twice in the regular season.
Indy is fighting for a playoff spot. The Colts desperately needed a win in Week 15, and a very dominant win they got by routing Minnesota Vikings, 34-6. That victory pushed the Colts back up to the .500 mark and just one game behind the Texans and the Titans for the top spot of the AFC South’s standings.
Oakland is a 3½-point favorite. That seemed to be solid earlier but with the Colts’ Andrew Luck back in form and the maligned defense showing up Sunday, well, that hook looks promising. I’ll take the Colts for $22.
PR HF HD RF RD Cover Streak APF APA Record
Indy 13.0 3-2-0 0-2-0 1-1-0 3-1-1 7-6-1 c1 25.9 24.1 7-7
Oakland 18.0 3-3-0 0-0-0 1-0-1 5-1-0 9-4-1 p1 26.9 24.0 11-3
The final Monday Night Football game of the season will pit Detroit at Dallas. The Cowboys will try to lock up the division and home-field advantage, while the Lions could help their wild card chances should they lose out on the North Division title.
Both teams got the clamps put on them by the Giants in the last two weeks. Dak Prescott has been struggling like a rookie is expected to, but Detroit’s defense has been allowing quarterbacks to record high completion percentages by working the short game. The Lions simply haven’t shown a defensive rush.
The Cowboys have taken over the top rung in the NFL power ratings, edging New England.
I think the Cowboys will handle the Lions and will bet $11 and lay the 7 points.
PR HF HD RF RD Cover Streak APF APA Record
Detroit 14.0 3-2-1 1-0-0 0-1-0 4-2-0 7-6-1 nc2 21.5 20.4 9-5
Dallas 21.0 3-2-0 1-0-1 2-2-0 3-0-0 9-4-1 nc1 26.1 18.4 12-2
On paper, the Pittsburgh-Baltimore game Christmas Day appears to be a quarterback game, the Steelers Ben Roethlisberger and the Ravens’ Joe Flacco. The Ravens can’t run the ball, however, and the Steelers can with Le’Veon Bell.
The game certainly has playoff consequences.
The Ravens are 5-point dogs and that could be a good thing. They have won the last three meetings against the Steelers in which they were underdogs. Baltimore upset Pittsburgh in the 2014 playoffs and last December, when the Ravens were 10-point underdogs. This year, the Ravens were three-point underdogs at home in November and they beat the Steelers 21-14 to end a four-game losing streak.
This rivalry has routinely featured close games. Dating back to 2011, seven of the last 11 games between the two have been decided by three points or less.
Close or not, I like Pittsburgh and will lay the 5 for $11.
PR HF HD RF RD Cover Streak APF APA Record
Baltimore 13.0 5-3-0 0-0-0 0-1-0 1-3-1 6-7-1 nc1 21.9 18.8 8-6
Pittsburgh 22.0 4-1-0 0-1-0 5-2-0 0-1-0 9-5-0 c5 24.4 19.7 9-5
Other NFL bets:
$33 — Green Bay -6½ vs. Minnesota
$22 — Seattle -8½ vs. Arizona, Cincy +1½ at Houston
$11 — NY Giants -2½ at Philadelphia, Buffalo -3½ vs. Miami, New Orleans -3 vs. Tampa, Atlanta -2½ at Carolina, Tennessee -5 at Jacksonville, San Diego -6 at Cleveland
The Big 12 has two others games in the bowl period from December 22 to December 29 — Baylor in the Cactus Bowl at Phoenix on the 27th and West Virginia in the Russell Athletic Bowl at Orlando on the 28th.
Embattled Baylor must go up against Boise, a team that thrives on bowl action, going 6-1 straight up and 5-2 against the spread in their last five post-season appearances. I just think even with all the problems, the Bears have the talent to whip Boise and will take the 7½ points for $22.
The Mountaineer defense must continue its strong play to whip Miami. West Virginia is a 2½-point favorite and I think they will cover, $22 worth.
Two other bowl bets in the December 22-December 29 frame:
$22 — St. Petersburg Bowl Mississippi State -14 vs. Miami (O.)
$11 — Foster Farms Bowl Utah -7 vs. Indiana