The Kansas City Chiefs have their sights set on a grand finale gala while the Kansas State Wildcats sealed their season with a 33-28 victory over Texas A&M last night at the Texas Bowl in Houston before what amounted to an Aggie home crowd.
The Chiefs are difficult to predict and what they do in a CBS spotlight game against San Diego on New Year’s Day borders on the stuff Ouija board reputations are built.
They opened the season against San Diego at home and took away a 33-27 victory. They followed that with a 19-12 loss at Houston and returned home to whip the New York Jets 24-3. Then came the debacle at Pittsburgh, losing 43-14. Did they take the deep six? No. They reeled off five straight victories.
Lookin’ good. Lowly Tampa was coming to town. The Chiefs played horribly and lost 19-17. Then no chance at Denver, huh. Oh yes, the Chiefs won 30-27 with a little magic. Here they go again, three straight victories. The mojo didn’t hold, however, because some witch doctor had a 19-17 voodoo doll. Inconsistent Tennessee came to town and beat the Chiefs 19-17.
KC just had to have the victory last Sunday at home vs. Denver. A victory it was, 33-10
Stout defense has helped create a scary Chiefs element. In 10 of their games, they have held their opponents to under 20 points. Their play has taken pressure off an offense that isn’t the best unit to take into a high-scoring affair. The Chiefs have scored only 21 second-half points in their last four games — 12 against Denver, 0 against Tennessee and Oakland and 9 vs. Atlanta.
Quarterback Alex Smith finally got over the 3,000-yard mark for the season last week against Denver. They’re not running the ball all that well either and that computes to their ranking 20th in the league in team total offense.
Hey, get the ball to Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce and the numbers will go up.
When betting this week, keep in mind who’s in and who’s out of the playoffs. Which teams will rest starters and which teams won’t. You simply need to factor that into your handicapping.
As for the Chiefs, they could still win the AFC West and be seeded second (and get a bye), or remain a wild-card team seeded fifth (and play at Houston) or fall to the No. 6 seed (and play at Pittsburgh).
The entire AFC field is set. It’s just a matter of determining the seeds, and that’s where things get a little tricky heading into the final week of the season.
This much is certain: The Steelers will be the No. 3 seed and the Texans will be seeded fourth. By winning their divisions, they will play host to Wild Card games on the weekend of Jan. 7-8.
We also know that the AFC East champion Patriots will get a bye to the Divisional Round, which is Jan. 14-15. They are currently the top seed in the AFC, but could drop to No. 2 with a loss at Miami and a Raiders win at Denver. That would make Oakland the top seed, although it will be without quarterback Derek Carr, who is out for the season because of a broken fibula.
No matter what all the configurations produce, I think the Chiefs will play hard and get all over San Diego, a team in disarray. Yes, yes, out of the ashes, yeah, yeah. But I will go with the Chiefs to cover the 5 ½ points, $22.
PR HF HD RF RD Cover Streak APF APA Record
Kansas City 16.5 3-5-0 0-0-0 1-0-0 4-2-0 8-7-0 c1 23.5 18.9 11-4
San Diego 13.0 2-3-0 1-0-1 1-1-0 2-4-0 6-8-1 nc1 25.5 25.7 5-10
What a superb performance last night by K-State quarterback Jesse Ertz. He threw for 195 yards and one touchdown on 14 of 20 passing; then he ran 24 times for 67 yards and two more TDs.
With the victory, the Cats knocked off every big-time Texas school for the season. They wound up 9-4 and can start thinking about next year real soon because 17 of the 22 starters are eligible to return next season.
Two plays really stand out in this game – for their timeliness more than anything else. The Aggies took the opening kickoff and simply rolled down the field with ease to take a 7-0 lead. Oh no, not one of these games, one where the Cats are battling back all the time, barely missing at the end. Nope!
After an exchange of punts, the Cats set up on their 21-yard line. Ertz faded to pass, looked the safety off and located Byron Pringle on a go pattern down the right sideline. Ertz fired a perfect pass and Pringle took it in stride and out-raced two defenders for a 79-yard touchdown play. They were back in it with fervor.
The other play. Well, the Aggies trailed 33-28 with 2:15 left in the game and they had the ball fourth and 8 at the K-State 23. Trevor Knight took the snap from center and stepped back quickly but not so fast, Mr. Quarterback. Defensive back Cre Moore flew off the corner and was in Knight’s face faster than you can say Sir Lancelot. Knight hurried the throw to Damion Ratley — not even close.
The Cats took over on downs and Ertz, with smart and nifty running, killed the clock.
Kansas State had lost seven of their last eight bowl games — the victory came in 2013 when they beat Michigan 31-14 in the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl.
The Cats led this one at the half, 23-14, after Dominque Heath went 52 yards on a jet sweep — and he was a jet on the play, finding a seam and sprinting to the end zone.
Then they led 33-21 with 9 minutes left in the game after Ertz scored a sneak.
That whole second half was K-State’s to grab, nurture and put to bed. However, they would go off-sides, drop a pass, get the wrong play call, allow the Aggies to convert on third down, blow a coverage. When the Aggies made that last drive, the mind went negative, thinking about those past losses when it appeared they had the game won.
Not this time. This was the Cats’ meow.
Lots of strategy, of course, in the game. For example, lanky receiver Josh Reynolds took advantage of the shorter Wildcat defensive backs and scored two TDs on lob passes in the end zone — he wound up with 12 catches for 154 yards.
The K-State defense did focus on Knight, who hurt the Cats when he was the quarterback at Oklahoma. He started off well last night, hitting 9 of his first 10 passes in the first quarter. But he finished the period going 0 for 5. He wound up 30 of 48 for 310 yards and one interception — and 3 for TDs. He also lost a momentum-killing fumble.
Defensively, there was some good and some bad. K-State linebacker Elijah Lee had 12 tackles. The Aggie offense is explosive and did run up 454 total yards.
The Cats managed 413 yards, getting good production from Pringle (107 yards on 3 receptions) and Justin Silmon (77 yards on 10 carries).
The TV director and announcers tried to make this the Myles Garrett show. He’s obviously good, considering that NFL gurus are picking the 270-pound Aggie defensive end to go No. 1 in the draft. Kansas State did a good job of neutralizing him. He did block an extra point but he was unable to do much else while facing near-constant double teams and finished with one tackle.
You can be sure the K-State faithful will savor this one — a victory over the dreaded SEC — and have many good thoughts about next season. Bill Snyder even says he will be back, if the folks want him. Ha, that’s droll.
More on the NFL.
The Packers have been taking care of business after an incredibly slow start and are now one of the hottest teams in the league. Detroit’s defense was a bit porous in the 42-21 loss last week at Dallas.
Aaron Rodgers could absolutely have his way if he stays in the groove he’s been in the last five games in which he’s thrown for 1,367 yards, 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions.
This is a toughie but I will go with Green Bay laying the 3½ for $11.
PR HF HD RF RD Cover Streak APF APA Record
Green Bay 16.5 3-4-0 1-0-0 0-4-0 2-1-0 6-9-0 c1 26.7 24.3 9-6
Detroit 17.0 3-2-1 1-0-0 0-1-0 4-3-0 8-6-1 nc3 21.5 21.8 9-6
The Atlanta Falcons will have lots to play for as they attempt to lock up the second seed in the NFC. They host New Orleans. The Saints come into the game as underdogs and that’s just the way their backers like it as the Saints are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games as underdogs. And this season, they’re 5-1 as a road dog, which they are this Sunday.
Offensively, the game matches up the Falcons No. 1-ranked offense (33.47 PPG) against a Saints defense that ranks No. 30 at 27.73 PPG. The Falcons passing attack has averaged 293.47 yards per game, more than the Saints give up through the air (270.47 YPG on average).
Defensively, the Saints feature the league’s No. 2-rated road run defense, allowing 82.43 yards per game. The Falcons, meanwhile, rank No. 8 in rushing offense at home.
You certainly must consider this as a probable shoot-out and I like Atlanta’s Matt Ryan to shoot straighter and more often. The Falcons -6½ for $22.
PR HF HD RF RD Cover Streak APF APA Record
New Orleans 13.5 2-4-0 2-0-0 1-0-0 5-1-0 10-5-0 c2 29.1 27.7 7-8
Atlanta 18.0 2-4-0 1-0-0 3-0-0 4-1-0 10-5-0 c3 33.5 24.9 10-5
Matt McGloin will get his first start at quarterback since 2013, as Oakland heads to Denver. McGloin, who will lead the Raiders into the playoffs after Carr suffered his injury, was 1-5 SU when he started six games for Oakland back in 2013 as a rookie.
The talent around McGloin is far superior this time around, as he will be throwing to Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree instead of Rod Streater and Denarius Moore. McGloin doesn’t have the arm that Carr does, but he could capitalize on short throws to a receiving unit that has the 10th-most yards after the catch in the NFL.
And the Broncos offense is a mess. Can the defense be enough to give them a victory? Or to cover the minus-1½? I like Denver’s defense and just maybe a bunch of these starters are playing for their jobs as an 8-7 record won’t cut it for head man John Elway. Go for $22.
PR HF HD RF RD Cover Streak APF APA Record
Oakland 15.5 4-3-0 0-0-0 1-0-1 5-1-0 10-4-1 c1 27.3 24.1 12-3
Denver 19.0 3-2-0 1-1-0 2-1-0 2-3-0 8-7-0 nc3 20.6 19.4 8-7
Other NFL bets:
$33 — Indy -4½ vs. Jacksonville
$22 — Washington -8 vs. NY Giants, Arizona -6 Los Angeles, Seattle -9½ at San Francisco
$11 — Buffalo -3½ at NY Jets, Philadelphia -4 vs. Dallas, Chicago +5 at Minnesota, Tampa -6 vs. Carolina, Miami +9½ vs. New England
Now it is time for the big games in the bowls. Too bad a couple of really standout players felt they owed their universities nothing and declined to play in their bowl games. This week, college stars Christian McCaffrey of Stanford and LSU’s Leonard Fournette declared that a bowl trip` wasn’t worth their NFL-money risk.
The Big 12 has three more bowl games after going 2-1 after the first three. Alamo Bowl tonight — Oklahoma State (9-3) vs. Colorado (10-3); Liberty Bowl Friday — TCU (6-6) vs. Georgia (7-5); Sugar Bowl Monday — Oklahoma (10-2) vs. Auburn (8-4).
OU’s 8-9 bowl record since the formation of the Big 12 Conference 21 years ago is representative of the conference’s notable lack of success in bowl games. The conference is 70-75 overall in postseason bowls and 18-19 in the last five years. The last time the Big 12 won more games than it lost in a bowl season was in 2011-12, when the league went 6-2.
Old rivals will meet in the Alamo Bowl. As members of the Big 12, Oklahoma State and Colorado split eight games. As members of the Big Eight before that, Colorado, now in the Pac-12, prevailed 20 times in 35 games. Overall, the Buffaloes own a 26-19 advantage vs. the Cowboys and are 3-point favorites. My Big 12 bias is showing here as I think the Cowboys will cover and will place $11 on the game.
Georgia’s Nick Chubb is a top-rung rusher and the Horned Frogs have not shown much consistency being able to stop teams on the ground. This has not been a good season for Coach Gary Patterson and he could erase frustration if TCU can win. TCU’s more wide-open offense should bother the Bulldogs. I simply am not sold on Georgia and will go with the Frogs getting a point for $22.
The Sooners have a barn full of really good athletes but the defense has seemed discombobulated all season. Baker Mayfield, Dede Westbrook and the Sooner offense will face an Auburn defense that has allowed just 15.6 points per game and five rushing touchdowns all season. But no offense at all. This is a tough one. I want to go with the Sooners but just can’t because of so many side issues. I’ll take the 3 points Auburn’s getting for $11.
The Fiesta will pit No. 3 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Clemson on New Year’s Eve. This game is ready for prime-time quarterbacks, Clemson’s Deshaun Watson vs. Ohio State’s J.T. Barrett. Good stuff. Ohio State is laying 3 points and that’s good with me for $11.
The Peach Bowl will match No. 4 Washington vs. No. 1 Alabama on New Year’s Eve. The pundits of football have already sent Washington packing. No chance, they say, that a Pac-12 team can stand up to mighty Bama. Oh, they quote chapter and verse on the reasons. And they make sense. After all, defending national champion Alabama is two victories away from completing the first 15-0 season in modern college football history. The Crimson Tide must defeat the Pac-12 champion Huskies to advance to the CFP National Championship Game. Oh they will but I think the Huskies will cover, getting 14 points. For $11.
Other bowl bets:
$33 — Southern Cal -6½ vs. Penn State
$22 — South Florida -10 vs. South Carolina, North Carolina +2½ vs. Stanford, Louisville +3 vs. LSU
$11 — Nebraska +6 vs. Tennessee, Michigan -7 vs. Florida State